Alibaba Stock: The Price Today & Why You Still Can't Trust the 'Experts'

Alibaba's AI Cloud: Savior or Smoke and Mirrors?

Alright, let's get one thing straight: I'm tired of these "tech miracle" stories. Every quarter, it's the same song and dance. Some company, usually one that's been flailing around for a while, suddenly discovers the magic bullet – AI! – and everyone's supposed to jump for joy. This week it's Alibaba and their AI-powered cloud revenue. Give me a break.

The Numbers Game

So, BABA stock price jumps because their cloud division beat estimates? Okay, fine. Revenue up 3% year-on-year, cloud intelligence at $5.59 billion, blah blah blah. Alibaba stock surges as AI-powered cloud revenue beats Wall Street estimates and lifts BABA share price outlook — Is BABA a Buy? The stock closed at $160.73, up 5.10%, and moved to $165.85 in pre-market trading, rising another 3.19%. But let's dig a little deeper, shall we? Because those headline numbers are designed to distract you from the real story.

They're bragging about 34% adjusted revenue growth in the cloud. But adjusted for what, exactly? And why are they so eager to point out “like-for-like” growth excluding Sun Art and Intime? Because the actual growth probably looks a whole lot less impressive. It's like a magician distracting you with one hand while the other one pulls the rabbit out of the hat. Only, in this case, the rabbit is probably just a dust bunny.

And speaking of dust bunnies, let's talk about profitability. Non-GAAP EPS missed estimates by $0.20. RMB EPS dropped 71%. 71 PERCENT! That's not a "hiccup." That's a freakin' avalanche. Management blames restructuring and AI investments. Of course they do. It's always someone else's fault, isn't it?

The AI Hype Train

Now, about this "AI-powered" cloud division. We're supposed to believe that Alibaba suddenly transformed into some kind of AI powerhouse, on par with nvda or msft? After years of… what, exactly? Playing catch-up? Let's be real.

They're throwing around phrases like "AI model training" and "enterprise adoption of cloud-based AI services." Sounds impressive, right? But what does it actually mean? Are they building genuinely innovative AI solutions, or just slapping an "AI" label on existing products to goose sales? I'm betting it's the latter.

And don't even get me started on the capital expenditure. Nearly 120 billion yuan spent on AI and cloud infrastructure. That's a lot of money. But what's the ROI? Are they actually generating enough revenue to justify that kind of investment? Or are they just burning cash in a desperate attempt to keep up with the competition?

It's like watching someone build a ridiculously expensive race car, but then realizing they don't have a driver who knows how to use it. All that fancy hardware, and no actual results.

Oh, and by the way, I tried to dig up some more information on their cloud services, but got blocked from accessing one of the pages. Access to this page has been denied. "Access Denied" because they think I'm a bot? Maybe I am. Maybe we all are, just blindly following the hype.

Retail Therapy (or Not)

Okay, fine, retail performance improved, thanks to faster delivery and government subsidies. But let's not forget that this "government-backed appliance trade-in program" ends on December 31st. So, what happens in January? Does everyone suddenly stop buying appliances? Offcourse not, but it's hardly a sustainable growth strategy. It's like giving someone a sugar rush, then acting surprised when they crash.

Analysts are comparing BABA's AI spending to Amazon and Microsoft back in the day. Maybe. Or maybe they're just desperately trying to justify their "buy" ratings. Seriously, analysts are almost always wrong. Remember when everyone was hyping up pltr?

U.S.-listed shares gained 3.9% early Tuesday. Big deal. The stock market is a casino these days. Up one day, down the next. Doesn't mean anything.

This Whole Thing Stinks of Desperation

Look, I'm not saying Alibaba is doomed. They're a massive company with a lot of resources. But this whole "AI savior" narrative feels forced. It feels like they're trying to distract us from their underlying problems – slowing growth, intense competition, and regulatory uncertainty in China. It's like putting lipstick on a pig. It might look a little prettier, but it's still a pig. And I ain't buying it. Then again maybe I'm being too harsh...

So, What's the Real Story?

It's the same old game: hype, hope, and a whole lot of smoke and mirrors.